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I am no expert on your make and model vehicle, with that being said…
Asking ” what does it sound more likely to be? ” is a gamblers bet.
You really need to isolate and pinpoint the source of the noise.
You could place a action cam under the vehicle in specific areas to check or there are electronic microphones that can be placed to listen in on specific areas.
You could also lift the vehicle off the ground, have someone run through the gears while your underneath and see if the issue can be reproduced.
This should be your first course of action.
Just guessing and replacing parts in the hope you get lucky can get very expensive very quickly.